Look up a pitcher
Bets
8
0W · 8L
Win Rate
0.0%
40.8% break-even (+145)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-13.80u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.80
Ks · n=2 predictions
Bias
+1.80
over-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
0W-8L
Win Rate
0%
+145 avg
MAE
1.80
P&L
-13.80u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER8 bets
Record
0W-8L
Win Rate
0%
+145 avg
P&L
-13.80u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/3/26 | @NYY | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -190 | 9.3% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.71u | BetMGM |
| 7/3/26 | @NYY | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +120 | 11.1% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.03u | BetMGM |
| 7/3/26 | @NYY | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +270 | 7.1% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -0.98u | BetMGM |
| 7/3/26 | @NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +550 | 5.2% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -0.62u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/27/26 | COL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -250 | 9.2% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -3.20u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | COL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -105 | 10.5% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.15u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +210 | 9.2% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -1.36u | BetMGM |
| 6/27/26 | COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +445 | 6.1% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -0.75u | DraftKings |