Look up a pitcher
Bets
11
1W · 2L
Win Rate
33.3%
42.6% break-even (+135)
ROI
-50.73%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.28u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.44
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+1.17
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%▲ 33pp
+135 avg
MAE
2.20▲ 1.35
P&L
-4.28u▼ 4.28u
UNDER3 bets
Record
0W-0L
Win Rate
0%
0 avg
P&L
+0.00u
OVER8 bets
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%
+135 avg
P&L
-4.28u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=3.4, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-5 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 25% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/6/26 | HOU | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -164 | 9.8% | 3.7 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.57u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/6/26 | @PHI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +152 | 14.3% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -2.36u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/1/26 | @ATL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +286 | 25.9% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 3 | LOSS | -3.49u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | @COL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +214 | 14.4% | 3.5 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | @COL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -120 | 13.9% | 3.5 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |
| 6/14/26 | SEA | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -167 | 8.0% | 2.8 | 1–4 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 6/8/26 | @SF | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -165 | 8.3% | 2.8 | 1–4 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |
| 6/2/26 | MIA | UNDER | 3.5 | MAIN | -150 | 8.6% | 2.8 | 1–5 | — | VOID | — | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @ATL | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -140 | 12.7% | 3.5 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |
| 5/22/26 | @ATL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +175 | 7.6% | 3.5 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |
| 5/22/26 | @ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +410 | 6.1% | 3.5 | 2–5 | — | VOID | — | Fanatics |