Miles Mikolas
scrub tier · 3.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.44
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.17
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.79
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.20
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.85
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | 3.41 | 1 | 2.41 |
| 8/1/26 | 3.42 | 3 | 0.42 |
| 7/26/26 | 2.85 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 7/21/26 | 3.49 | 1 | 2.49 |
| 7/11/26 | 3.82 | 0 | 3.82 |
| 7/6/26 | 3.68 | 3 | 0.68 |
| 6/29/26 | 2.88 | 3 | 0.12 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.21 | 1 | 2.21 |
| 6/14/26 | 2.53 | 3 | 0.47 |
| 6/8/26 | 2.75 | 2 | 0.75 |
| 6/2/26 | 2.83 | 4 | 1.17 |
| 5/27/26 | 2.89 | 1 | 1.89 |
| 5/22/26 | 3.50 | 3 | 0.50 |