Look up a pitcher
Bets
14
6W · 8L
Win Rate
42.9%
32.5% break-even (+208)
ROI
+135.16%
profit / wager
P&L
+52.72u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.56
Ks · n=3 predictions
Bias
-0.22
neutral
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 3 starts
Record
6W-8L
Win Rate
43%
+208 avg
MAE
2.56
P&L
+52.71u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER14 bets
Record
6W-8L
Win Rate
43%
+208 avg
P&L
+52.72u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/26 | SD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -184 | 21.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +3.37u | DraftKings |
| 8/5/26 | SD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +135 | 28.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +6.80u | DraftKings |
| 8/5/26 | SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +319 | 29.0% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +12.14u | DraftKings |
| 8/5/26 | SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +720 | 22.7% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +18.59u | DraftKings |
| 8/5/26 | SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1650 | 14.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +26.09u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/25/26 | @WAS | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -260 | 11.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.53u | Fanatics |
| 7/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 14.3% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.22u | BetMGM |
| 7/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +165 | 13.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.12u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +362 | 11.4% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.46u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +770 | 7.7% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.87u | DraftKings |
| 7/25/26 | @WAS | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -105 | 15.9% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.26u | BetMGM |
| 7/25/26 | @WAS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +230 | 17.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.50u | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @WAS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +500 | 12.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.48u | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @WAS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1050 | 8.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.90u | BetRivers |