Mitch Keller
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.78
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.68
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.24
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.83
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.13
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/2/26 | 4.83 | 2 | 2.83 |
| 7/27/26 | 3.95 | 4 | 0.05 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.58 | 6 | 1.42 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.48 | 3 | 1.48 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.36 | 1 | 3.36 |
| 6/28/26 | 5.14 | 4 | 1.14 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.55 | 4 | 0.55 |
| 6/16/26 | 3.47 | 7 | 3.53 |
| 6/11/26 | 3.93 | 3 | 0.93 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.50 | 0 | 4.50 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.56 | 5 | 0.44 |
| 5/24/26 | 3.85 | 5 | 1.15 |