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Bets
23
8W · 13L
Win Rate
38.1%
39.6% break-even (+152)
ROI
-10.33%
profit / wager
P&L
-4.66u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.08
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.85
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-5L
Win Rate
29%▼ 14pp
-103 avg
MAE
2.69▲ 0.47
P&L
-8.64u▼ 12.61u
UNDER9 bets
Record
2W-5L
Win Rate
29%
-103 avg
P&L
-8.64u
OVER14 bets
Record
6W-8L
Win Rate
43%
+193 avg
P&L
+3.98u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.0, α=0.000) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 26% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/19/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +118 | 6.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.48u | FanDuel |
| 7/19/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -162 | 7.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.13u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | @TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -159 | 11.3% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +1.84u | Caesars |
| 6/26/26 | @TOR | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +132 | 12.9% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +3.00u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/26/26 | @TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 12.6% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 9 | WIN | +4.72u | Bovada |
| 6/14/26 | @BOS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -135 | 18.2% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +3.16u | BetMGM |
| 6/14/26 | @BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +154 | 20.6% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +5.25u | FanDuel |
| 6/2/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | -110 | 5.5% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.05u | BetMGM |
| 7/25/26 | SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -136 | 5.1% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +126 | 17.4% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -3.13u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | LAA | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -143 | 16.8% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 10 | LOSS | -4.08u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/2/26 | DET | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +100 | 9.2% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -1.84u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | DET | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | +175 | 6.3% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 9 | LOSS | -0.99u | BetRivers |
| 6/14/26 | @BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 19.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -2.59u | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | @BOS | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +680 | 16.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.84u | FanDuel |
| 6/14/26 | @BOS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1220 | 9.9% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.08u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -155 | 12.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -3.15u | BetMGM |
| 6/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +136 | 14.6% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.53u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +279 | 14.0% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.90u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +564 | 9.8% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.15u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @KC | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1120 | 7.2% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -0.79u | DraftKings |
| 8/7/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +120 | 17.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | — | — | — | Bovada |
| 8/7/26 | BAL | UNDER | 7.5 | MAIN | -135 | 19.5% | 5.8 | 3–8 | — | — | — | BetMGM |