Nathan Eovaldi
elite tier · 6.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
2.22
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.48
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.64
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.88
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.62
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/7/26 | 5.85 | 2 | 3.85 |
| 7/31/26 | 5.94 | 5 | 0.94 |
| 7/25/26 | 5.96 | 8 | 2.04 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.51 | 2 | 3.51 |
| 7/9/26 | 5.95 | 10 | 4.05 |
| 7/2/26 | 6.10 | 9 | 2.90 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.18 | 9 | 3.82 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.93 | 9 | 3.07 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.68 | 6 | 0.32 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.97 | 3 | 2.97 |
| 6/2/26 | 6.11 | 7 | 0.89 |
| 5/28/26 | 5.77 | 6 | 0.23 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.75 | 6 | 0.25 |