Nick Lodolo
good tier · 4.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
1.42
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.65
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.73
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.68
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.86
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0055
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0073
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.20 | 3 | 2.20 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.04 | 1 | 4.04 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.95 | 4 | 0.95 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.92 | 6 | 1.08 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.85 | 5 | 0.15 |
| 8/26/26 | 4.85 | 5 | 0.15 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.49 | 5 | 0.51 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.11 | 4 | 1.11 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.23 | 4 | 1.23 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.32 | 4 | 1.32 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.77 | 6 | 1.23 |
| 6/17/26 | 5.04 | 2 | 3.04 |
| 6/12/26 | 4.09 | 5 | 0.91 |
| 6/6/26 | 4.40 | 3 | 1.40 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.29 | 4 | 1.29 |
| 5/25/26 | 4.90 | 7 | 2.10 |