Nick Martinez
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.81
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.83
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.09
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.52
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.65
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 4.24 | 7 | 2.76 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.15 | 3 | 1.15 |
| 9/10/26 | 4.36 | 3 | 1.36 |
| 9/4/26 | 4.17 | 4 | 0.17 |
| 8/29/26 | 4.16 | 2 | 2.16 |
| 8/18/26 | 3.24 | 5 | 1.76 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.15 | 1 | 3.15 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.19 | 4 | 0.19 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.18 | 2 | 2.18 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.05 | 5 | 0.95 |
| 7/20/26 | 2.66 | 0 | 2.66 |
| 7/10/26 | 4.87 | 1 | 3.87 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.42 | 3 | 1.42 |
| 6/26/26 | 3.72 | 3 | 0.72 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.25 | 5 | 0.75 |
| 6/15/26 | 3.33 | 6 | 2.67 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.17 | 2 | 1.17 |
| 6/3/26 | 4.05 | 1 | 3.05 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.08 | 5 | 0.92 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.10 | 1 | 3.10 |