Nick Pivetta
elite tier · 6.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
4
MAE
1.28
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.38
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.55
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.28
n=4
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.23 | 7 | 1.77 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.93 | 4 | 0.93 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.96 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.38 | 2 | 2.38 |