Noah Cameron
good tier · 4.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
2.68
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.58
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.94
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.80
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.34
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
37
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.96 | 3 | 1.96 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.05 | 6 | 0.95 |
| 9/13/26 | 5.10 | 4 | 1.10 |
| 9/7/26 | 3.89 | 7 | 3.11 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.11 | 7 | 1.89 |
| 8/27/26 | 5.07 | 3 | 2.07 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.20 | 2 | 3.20 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.31 | 9 | 4.69 |
| 7/30/26 | 4.12 | 7 | 2.88 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.88 | 1 | 3.88 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.89 | 9 | 4.11 |
| 7/6/26 | 5.02 | 7 | 1.98 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.97 | 0 | 4.97 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 6/18/26 | 3.51 | 6 | 2.49 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.20 | 1 | 3.20 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.31 | 7 | 2.69 |
| 6/2/26 | 4.63 | 8 | 3.37 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.65 | 4 | 0.65 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.58 | 8 | 3.42 |