Look up a pitcher
Bets
4
3W · 1L
Win Rate
75.0%
51.3% break-even (-105)
ROI
+48.97%
profit / wager
P&L
+3.78u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.43
Ks · n=6 predictions
Bias
+1.35
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0007 · 8 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%
-105 avg
MAE
2.05
P&L
+3.78u
UNDER4 bets
Record
3W-1L
Win Rate
75%
-105 avg
P&L
+3.78u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
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P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.1, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/21/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -125 | 6.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | 2 | WIN | +1.20u | BetMGM |
| 7/12/26 | ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -111 | 14.0% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.65u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 8.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.67u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | NYY | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +102 | 8.8% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 5 | LOSS | -1.75u | DraftKings |