Noah Schultz
scrub tier · 3.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
7
MAE
2.48
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.55
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.89
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.99
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
8
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/7/26 | 3.76 | 1 | 2.76 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.24 | 0 | 4.24 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.05 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 7/12/26 | 3.83 | 4 | 0.17 |
| 7/7/26 | 3.75 | 3 | 0.75 |
| 7/1/26 | 3.94 | 7 | 3.06 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.31 | 1 | 4.31 |