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Bets
12
3W · 9L
Win Rate
25.0%
50.4% break-even (-101)
ROI
-56.33%
profit / wager
P&L
-17.57u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.04
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-1.17
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 22 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%▲ 26pp
-115 avg
MAE
2.06▼ 0.16
P&L
-7.35u▲ 2.87u
UNDER12 bets
Record
3W-9L
Win Rate
25%
-101 avg
P&L
-17.57u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.4, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 30% · green = OVER 6.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/26 | MIA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -119 | 9.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.69u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | @ATL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -155 | 6.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.01u | DraftKings |
| 5/25/26 | CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | ALT | +135 | 18.0% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.22u | BetRivers |
| 8/6/26 | @CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +116 | 23.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | LOSS | -4.32u | DraftKings |
| 7/25/26 | LAD | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -142 | 11.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -2.73u | DraftKings |
| 7/10/26 | BOS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +110 | 15.7% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -3.00u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/30/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -118 | 16.7% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -3.64u | FanDuel |
| 6/24/26 | CHC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +123 | 9.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.77u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | CHC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -154 | 10.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -2.57u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/17/26 | @CIN | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -140 | 9.7% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -2.32u | BetMGM |
| 6/12/26 | ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 10.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.13u | DraftKings |
| 5/25/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | +265 | 14.6% | 6.0 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -2.01u | BetRivers |