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Bets
16
7W · 8L
Win Rate
46.7%
44.2% break-even (+126)
ROI
+9.44%
profit / wager
P&L
+2.79u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.18
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.08
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 20 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-4L
Win Rate
56%▲ 22pp
+108 avg
MAE
2.24▼ 0.23
P&L
+0.23u▼ 2.32u
UNDER9 bets
Record
5W-3L
Win Rate
63%
+111 avg
P&L
+6.80u
OVER7 bets
Record
2W-5L
Win Rate
29%
+147 avg
P&L
-4.01u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.4, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 30% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
6 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -143 | 8.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.46u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +150 | 10.1% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +2.53u | BetRivers |
| 7/4/26 | CWS | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -121 | 10.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 3 | WIN | +2.00u | DraftKings |
| 6/29/26 | TEX | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -137 | 8.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.49u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/29/26 | TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 6.6% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.51u | BetMGM |
| 5/30/26 | BOS | UNDER | 4.5 | ALT | +280 | 14.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +5.35u | BetRivers |
| 5/30/26 | BOS | UNDER | 5.5 | ALT | +138 | 16.4% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +3.90u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +320 | 10.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.31u | BetRivers |
| 8/1/26 | ARI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +134 | 15.2% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -2.65u | FanDuel |
| 8/1/26 | ARI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -165 | 12.6% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -3.33u | BetRivers |
| 7/26/26 | @TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +102 | 7.4% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -1.47u | DraftKings |
| 6/10/26 | NYY | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -185 | 8.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -2.38u | BetMGM |
| 6/10/26 | NYY | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +115 | 10.6% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -1.98u | BetMGM |
| 6/10/26 | NYY | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +225 | 9.8% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -1.42u | BetMGM |
| 6/10/26 | NYY | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +430 | 7.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -0.91u | FanDuel |
| 8/7/26 | @CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +124 | 7.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | — | — | — | DraftKings |