Parker Messick
elite tier · 6.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.20
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.40
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.74
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.03
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.88
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
20
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.47 | 5 | 0.47 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.34 | 8 | 2.66 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.61 | 5 | 0.61 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.60 | 12 | 6.40 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.00 | 5 | 0.00 |
| 8/24/26 | 7.34 | 4 | 3.34 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.88 | 8 | 2.12 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.26 | 6 | 1.74 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.31 | 6 | 1.69 |
| 7/21/26 | 5.50 | 6 | 0.50 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.59 | 1 | 4.59 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.70 | 3 | 2.70 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.66 | 5 | 0.66 |
| 6/23/26 | 5.68 | 10 | 4.32 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.09 | 9 | 3.91 |
| 6/10/26 | 6.07 | 4 | 2.07 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.43 | 4 | 1.43 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.17 | 4 | 1.17 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.61 | 6 | 1.39 |