Paul Skenes
elite tier · 6.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.07
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.33
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.49
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.33
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.75
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.48 | 8 | 2.52 |
| 9/18/26 | 5.87 | 7 | 1.13 |
| 9/12/26 | 5.72 | 4 | 1.72 |
| 9/6/26 | 6.59 | 2 | 4.59 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.70 | 4 | 1.70 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.79 | 4 | 1.79 |
| 8/11/26 | 5.80 | 4 | 1.80 |
| 8/5/26 | 6.01 | 6 | 0.01 |
| 7/31/26 | 6.79 | 7 | 0.21 |
| 7/25/26 | 6.04 | 11 | 4.96 |
| 7/19/26 | 6.18 | 8 | 1.82 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.99 | 7 | 1.01 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.58 | 4 | 1.58 |
| 7/1/26 | 6.16 | 5 | 1.16 |
| 6/26/26 | 6.24 | 7 | 0.76 |
| 6/20/26 | 5.68 | 8 | 2.32 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.98 | 10 | 4.02 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.60 | 7 | 1.40 |
| 6/3/26 | 6.08 | 7 | 0.92 |
| 5/28/26 | 5.85 | 10 | 4.15 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.84 | 2 | 3.84 |