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Bets
27
14W · 12L
Win Rate
53.8%
41.1% break-even (+143)
ROI
+11.49%
profit / wager
P&L
+5.43u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.49
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-0.36
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0042 · 12 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
7W-3L
Win Rate
70%▲ 26pp
+126 avg
MAE
1.22▼ 0.32
P&L
+10.78u▲ 16.12u
UNDER6 bets
Record
2W-3L
Win Rate
40%
-103 avg
P&L
-2.04u
OVER21 bets
Record
12W-9L
Win Rate
57%
+158 avg
P&L
+7.47u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=6.2, α=0.004) · 80% range 4-9 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +122 | 7.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.60u | FanDuel |
| 8/1/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +251 | 7.4% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.61u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | BAL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +135 | 7.1% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 9 | WIN | +1.66u | Bovada |
| 7/12/26 | @NYM | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -164 | 9.8% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +1.57u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/12/26 | @NYM | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +128 | 11.7% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +2.66u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/12/26 | @NYM | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +250 | 10.6% | 6.0 | 3–9 | 7 | WIN | +3.70u | BetRivers |
| 7/7/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 6.4% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.22u | Fanatics |
| 6/21/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +136 | 6.0% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.41u | FanDuel |
| 6/21/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -135 | 6.2% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.08u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/16/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -180 | 9.2% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +1.43u | Fanatics |
| 6/16/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | +125 | 15.3% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | WIN | +3.45u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @MIN | OVER | 4.5 | N/A | -220 | 7.4% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 9 | WIN | +1.08u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @MIN | OVER | 6.5 | N/A | +195 | 10.1% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 9 | WIN | +2.97u | BetRivers |
| 5/22/26 | @MIN | OVER | 5.5 | N/A | -104 | 8.8% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 9 | WIN | +1.72u | FanDuel |
| 7/20/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +126 | 7.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.30u | FanDuel |
| 7/20/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -150 | 7.6% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.90u | BetMGM |
| 7/7/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +180 | 6.7% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.05u | Fanatics |
| 6/16/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +260 | 18.0% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -2.50u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | TOR | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +550 | 17.8% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -2.10u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | TOR | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1000 | 13.6% | 6.5 | 4–9 | 6 | LOSS | -1.50u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +121 | 14.1% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.58u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +254 | 17.1% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.39u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @TB | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +527 | 16.8% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.00u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @TB | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1040 | 13.6% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.49u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -176 | 9.4% | 6.4 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -2.59u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @MIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +103 | 6.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 9 | LOSS | -1.34u | DraftKings |
| 8/7/26 | ATH | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | +100 | 10.8% | 6.0 | 3–9 | — | — | — | DraftKings |