Payton Tolle
elite tier · 6.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.76
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.90
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.50
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.29
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.71
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0042
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0094
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
12
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.86 | 5 | 0.86 |
| 9/13/26 | 6.33 | 7 | 0.67 |
| 9/6/26 | 8.09 | 12 | 3.91 |
| 8/31/26 | 5.98 | 6 | 0.02 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.99 | 7 | 1.01 |
| 8/7/26 | 6.36 | 14 | 7.64 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.80 | 7 | 1.20 |
| 7/27/26 | 5.79 | 7 | 1.21 |
| 7/20/26 | 6.64 | 9 | 2.36 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.88 | 7 | 1.12 |
| 7/7/26 | 6.20 | 6 | 0.20 |
| 7/1/26 | 5.40 | 5 | 0.40 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.99 | 7 | 1.01 |
| 6/21/26 | 5.37 | 2 | 3.37 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.19 | 6 | 0.81 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.11 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 6/3/26 | 6.26 | 5 | 1.26 |
| 5/28/26 | 6.31 | 7 | 0.69 |
| 5/22/26 | 5.34 | 9 | 3.66 |