Peter Lambert
elite tier · 5.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.59
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.69
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.92
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.26
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.63
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
25
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 4.96 | 6 | 1.04 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.92 | 6 | 1.08 |
| 9/12/26 | 5.15 | 4 | 1.15 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.19 | 6 | 1.81 |
| 8/31/26 | 4.77 | 6 | 1.23 |
| 8/26/26 | 4.76 | 5 | 0.24 |
| 8/8/26 | 4.69 | 3 | 1.69 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.98 | 8 | 3.02 |
| 7/28/26 | 4.99 | 6 | 1.01 |
| 7/22/26 | 5.20 | 3 | 2.20 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.94 | 10 | 5.06 |
| 7/11/26 | 4.46 | 7 | 2.54 |
| 7/5/26 | 4.22 | 6 | 1.78 |
| 6/29/26 | 4.95 | 4 | 0.95 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.48 | 6 | 1.52 |
| 6/17/26 | 4.94 | 5 | 0.06 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.43 | 6 | 1.57 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.89 | 4 | 0.89 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.16 | 3 | 2.16 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.14 | 5 | 0.86 |