Look up a pitcher
Bets
16
0W · 12L
Win Rate
0.0%
33.3% break-even (+200)
ROI
-100.00%
profit / wager
P&L
-20.70u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.25
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
+1.92
over-predicting
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
0W-12L
Win Rate
0%
+200 avg
MAE
2.56
P&L
-20.70u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER16 bets
Record
0W-12L
Win Rate
0%
+200 avg
P&L
-20.70u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
3 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/26 | @ARI | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | +120 | 17.0% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 1 | LOSS | -3.12u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/4/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +297 | 15.3% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 1 | LOSS | -2.04u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +750 | 11.1% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 1 | LOSS | -1.25u | DraftKings |
| 8/4/26 | @ARI | OVER | 1.5 | ALT | -238 | 12.7% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 1 | LOSS | -4.30u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/4/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +1740 | 6.0% | 3.3 | 1–5 | 1 | LOSS | -0.63u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -185 | 8.2% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 0 | LOSS | -2.33u | Fanatics |
| 7/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +135 | 10.3% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 0 | LOSS | -1.80u | Fanatics |
| 7/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +323 | 10.2% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 0 | LOSS | -1.33u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +760 | 7.7% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 0 | LOSS | -0.87u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @TEX | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -107 | 5.8% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.20u | BetRivers |
| 6/19/26 | @TEX | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +223 | 7.3% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.06u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @TEX | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +508 | 6.4% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -0.77u | DraftKings |
| 6/27/26 | LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -225 | 6.8% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |
| 6/27/26 | LAD | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +118 | 10.8% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | BetRivers |
| 6/27/26 | LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +260 | 9.7% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |
| 6/27/26 | LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +575 | 7.4% | 4.0 | 2–6 | — | VOID | — | Bovada |