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Bets
18
12W · 5L
Win Rate
70.6%
41.0% break-even (+144)
ROI
+108.29%
profit / wager
P&L
+40.85u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.99
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
+0.96
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0303 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-2L
Win Rate
50%▼ 27pp
-111 avg
MAE
2.58▼ 0.80
P&L
+3.99u▼ 32.86u
UNDER9 bets
Record
4W-4L
Win Rate
50%
-108 avg
P&L
+3.48u
OVER9 bets
Record
8W-1L
Win Rate
89%
+221 avg
P&L
+37.37u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.030) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/6/26 | CWS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +120 | 22.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +5.01u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -135 | 15.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.63u | BetMGM |
| 6/24/26 | @COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -155 | 7.2% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 9 | WIN | +1.18u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +134 | 9.4% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 9 | WIN | +2.20u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +280 | 10.7% | 5.8 | 3–9 | 9 | WIN | +4.07u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +121 | 12.6% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.77u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -153 | 15.2% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.51u | DraftKings |
| 5/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -141 | 10.0% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 10 | WIN | +1.70u | DraftKings |
| 5/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +149 | 12.7% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 10 | WIN | +3.16u | DraftKings |
| 5/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +310 | 13.4% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 10 | WIN | +5.51u | DraftKings |
| 5/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +640 | 11.6% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 10 | WIN | +8.61u | FanDuel |
| 5/31/26 | @CLE | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1300 | 8.5% | 5.9 | 3–9 | 10 | WIN | +11.88u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | TOR | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 11.0% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 6 | LOSS | -2.44u | DraftKings |
| 6/29/26 | WAS | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 5.7% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 8 | LOSS | -1.21u | BetMGM |
| 6/13/26 | TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -104 | 8.9% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.81u | FanDuel |
| 6/7/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +105 | 20.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 6 | LOSS | -3.99u | BetMGM |
| 6/7/26 | @NYY | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1300 | 8.7% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.94u | DraftKings |
| 7/21/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +100 | 20.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | — | — | — | Bovada |