Ranger Suarez
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.60
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.06
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.04
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.69
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.07
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0303
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0420
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 5.16 | 5 | 0.16 |
| 9/18/26 | 5.15 | 5 | 0.15 |
| 9/12/26 | 5.01 | 8 | 2.99 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.00 | 3 | 2.00 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.13 | 2 | 3.13 |
| 8/24/26 | 4.66 | 4 | 0.66 |
| 8/18/26 | 4.07 | 2 | 2.07 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.60 | 0 | 4.60 |
| 8/6/26 | 5.23 | 0 | 5.23 |
| 7/31/26 | 4.78 | 2 | 2.78 |
| 7/26/26 | 3.85 | 6 | 2.15 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.51 | 2 | 2.51 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.22 | 5 | 0.22 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.10 | 8 | 2.90 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.85 | 9 | 3.15 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.23 | 0 | 5.23 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.73 | 1 | 4.73 |
| 6/7/26 | 5.13 | 6 | 0.87 |
| 6/6/26 | 4.90 | 3 | 1.90 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.89 | 10 | 4.11 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.09 | 1 | 3.09 |