Reid Detmers
elite tier · 6.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
2.11
Ks off, on average
Bias
-1.05
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.81
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.00
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.96
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0329
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0457
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 5.58 | 7 | 1.42 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.64 | 5 | 0.64 |
| 9/14/26 | 5.60 | 8 | 2.40 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.70 | 9 | 3.30 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.74 | 8 | 2.26 |
| 8/28/26 | 5.75 | 2 | 3.75 |
| 8/10/26 | 5.42 | 6 | 0.58 |
| 8/5/26 | 5.53 | 5 | 0.53 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.51 | 9 | 3.49 |
| 7/22/26 | 4.57 | 6 | 1.43 |
| 7/17/26 | 5.62 | 7 | 1.38 |
| 7/9/26 | 5.83 | 6 | 0.17 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.86 | 5 | 0.86 |
| 6/27/26 | 6.50 | 8 | 1.50 |
| 6/21/26 | 6.80 | 4 | 2.80 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.00 | 3 | 2.00 |
| 6/10/26 | 6.47 | 9 | 2.53 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.52 | 6 | 0.48 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.21 | 7 | 1.79 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.13 | 14 | 8.87 |