Rhett Lowder
scrub tier · 4.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.31
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.42
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.70
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.93
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.76
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0006
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
16
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 4.17 | 3 | 1.17 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.15 | 4 | 0.15 |
| 9/9/26 | 4.29 | 4 | 0.29 |
| 9/4/26 | 4.36 | 2 | 2.36 |
| 8/28/26 | 4.33 | 5 | 0.67 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.26 | 4 | 0.26 |
| 8/5/26 | 3.48 | 3 | 0.48 |
| 7/30/26 | 4.09 | 5 | 0.91 |
| 7/24/26 | 3.83 | 4 | 0.17 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 6/30/26 | 4.06 | 8 | 3.94 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.81 | 6 | 2.19 |
| 6/19/26 | 4.03 | 5 | 0.97 |
| 6/13/26 | 3.23 | 6 | 2.77 |
| 6/7/26 | 2.64 | 4 | 1.36 |