Robbie Ray
avg tier · 4.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.78
Ks off, on average
Bias
+2.78
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.13
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.97
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.26
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.46 | 3 | 1.46 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.72 | 0 | 4.72 |
| 9/11/26 | 4.68 | 2 | 2.68 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.89 | 1 | 3.89 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.08 | 2 | 2.08 |
| 8/24/26 | 6.02 | 1 | 5.02 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.24 | 4 | 1.24 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.89 | 4 | 0.89 |
| 7/30/26 | 5.26 | 2 | 3.26 |
| 7/25/26 | 5.89 | 5 | 0.89 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.68 | 1 | 4.68 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.31 | 3 | 2.31 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.21 | 2 | 3.21 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.78 | 2 | 2.78 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.96 | 2 | 2.96 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.09 | 3 | 1.09 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.82 | 4 | 0.82 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.92 | 1 | 4.92 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.01 | 1 | 4.01 |