Robert Gasser
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.38
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.24
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.84
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.79
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.07
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0566
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1492
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
12
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.71 | 9 | 4.29 |
| 9/19/26 | 4.56 | 2 | 2.56 |
| 9/13/26 | 5.45 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 9/7/26 | 3.95 | 5 | 1.05 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.61 | 4 | 0.61 |
| 8/8/26 | 3.29 | 3 | 0.29 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.78 | 6 | 1.22 |
| 7/25/26 | 5.46 | 4 | 1.46 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.36 | 3 | 2.36 |
| 7/7/26 | 3.70 | 4 | 0.30 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.07 | 7 | 2.93 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.78 | 5 | 0.78 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.62 | 7 | 2.38 |