Roki Sasaki
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.93
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.37
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.42
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.90
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.52
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
20
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/26/26 | 5.22 | 3 | 2.22 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.19 | 5 | 0.19 |
| 7/30/26 | 5.14 | 7 | 1.86 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.29 | 9 | 4.71 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.47 | 5 | 0.53 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.71 | 5 | 0.29 |
| 7/2/26 | 4.86 | 3 | 1.86 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.26 | 2 | 3.26 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.08 | 6 | 0.92 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.27 | 4 | 1.27 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.07 | 10 | 4.93 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.32 | 7 | 1.68 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.33 | 4 | 1.33 |