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Bets
13
7W · 6L
Win Rate
53.8%
49.0% break-even (+104)
ROI
+7.47%
profit / wager
P&L
+1.93u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.06
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
-0.65
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0005 · 20 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
3W-4L
Win Rate
43%▼ 24pp
-115 avg
MAE
1.85▼ 0.56
P&L
-0.37u▼ 2.67u
UNDER11 bets
Record
5W-6L
Win Rate
45%
-110 avg
P&L
-1.78u
OVER2 bets
Record
2W-0L
Win Rate
100%
+223 avg
P&L
+3.71u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.9, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 23% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/17/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -162 | 9.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.52u | DraftKings |
| 7/8/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +101 | 17.2% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +3.46u | DraftKings |
| 7/2/26 | SD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 6.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.03u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | @SD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -106 | 5.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 2 | WIN | +1.04u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | BAL | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -142 | 16.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | WIN | +2.88u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +157 | 5.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +1.39u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +333 | 5.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.32u | DraftKings |
| 7/30/26 | SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -114 | 6.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.28u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/24/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -159 | 5.6% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 9 | LOSS | -1.45u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/24/26 | @NYM | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 12.8% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -2.30u | BetRivers |
| 7/17/26 | @NYY | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +124 | 7.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.35u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | BAL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +126 | 16.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 6 | LOSS | -2.86u | DraftKings |
| 6/5/26 | LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +112 | 13.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 10 | LOSS | -2.46u | BetRivers |