Look up a pitcher
Bets
35
11W · 23L
Win Rate
32.4%
34.3% break-even (+192)
ROI
+39.30%
profit / wager
P&L
+27.69u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.11
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+0.79
over-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0372 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-11L
Win Rate
31%▼ 2pp
+218 avg
MAE
1.95▼ 0.27
P&L
+38.53u▲ 49.37u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER35 bets
Record
11W-23L
Win Rate
32%
+192 avg
P&L
+27.69u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.5, α=0.037) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/3/26 | SF | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -167 | 19.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +3.08u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/3/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +138 | 23.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +5.52u | BetRivers |
| 7/3/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +310 | 22.6% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +9.27u | Fanatics |
| 7/3/26 | SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +750 | 19.0% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +16.12u | FanDuel |
| 7/3/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1560 | 12.4% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 9 | WIN | +20.53u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | @CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -114 | 6.5% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +1.23u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | @CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +195 | 7.0% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +2.07u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +420 | 5.9% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +3.06u | DraftKings |
| 6/16/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +880 | 7.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 7 | WIN | +7.37u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | CHC | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -268 | 8.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.13u | DraftKings |
| 6/5/26 | MIL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +104 | 15.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 4 | WIN | +3.11u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | CIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -180 | 9.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.53u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | CIN | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 12.2% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.19u | BetRivers |
| 7/19/26 | CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +280 | 13.7% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.86u | FanDuel |
| 7/19/26 | CIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +560 | 10.9% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.28u | Bovada |
| 7/9/26 | @SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +176 | 11.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.85u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | @SF | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +400 | 11.7% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.46u | FanDuel |
| 7/9/26 | @SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +740 | 7.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.82u | DraftKings |
| 7/9/26 | @SF | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -146 | 6.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.67u | FanDuel |
| 6/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +144 | 5.5% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.93u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +315 | 6.2% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.81u | DraftKings |
| 6/28/26 | @MIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +675 | 5.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 0 | LOSS | -0.59u | Bovada |
| 6/22/26 | BOS | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -251 | 11.1% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.91u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | BOS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +103 | 17.0% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.35u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | BOS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +238 | 18.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.62u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | BOS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +533 | 15.8% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.87u | DraftKings |
| 6/22/26 | BOS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1180 | 11.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.21u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +100 | 14.0% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.81u | BetRivers |
| 6/11/26 | CHC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +221 | 14.3% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.08u | DraftKings |
| 6/11/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +505 | 12.6% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.51u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | SF | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -215 | 11.7% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.67u | Fanatics |
| 5/30/26 | SF | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +110 | 14.7% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.80u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | SF | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +250 | 15.0% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.10u | DraftKings |
| 5/30/26 | SF | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1220 | 8.1% | 4.3 | 2–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.88u | DraftKings |
| 8/7/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +296 | 18.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |