Ryan Feltner
scrub tier · 3.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
17
MAE
2.03
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.83
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.32
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.86
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.47
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0372
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0517
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/10/26 | 4.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
| 9/4/26 | 4.33 | 5 | 0.67 |
| 8/24/26 | 3.72 | 6 | 2.28 |
| 8/18/26 | 4.43 | 3 | 1.43 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.42 | 2 | 2.42 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.01 | 2 | 2.01 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.19 | 3 | 1.19 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.41 | 4 | 0.41 |
| 7/19/26 | 5.11 | 3 | 2.11 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.61 | 3 | 1.61 |
| 7/3/26 | 4.55 | 9 | 4.45 |
| 6/28/26 | 4.28 | 0 | 4.28 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.20 | 7 | 2.80 |
| 6/11/26 | 4.06 | 3 | 1.06 |
| 6/5/26 | 4.46 | 4 | 0.46 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.34 | 2 | 2.34 |