Ryan Gusto
scrub tier · 3.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
0.93
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.15
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.21
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.63
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.90
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0703
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.1397
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
20
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.00 | 5 | 1.00 |
| 9/16/26 | 4.02 | 4 | 0.02 |
| 9/11/26 | 3.98 | 3 | 0.98 |
| 9/5/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 8/31/26 | 3.92 | 4 | 0.08 |
| 8/26/26 | 3.90 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 8/9/26 | 4.32 | 4 | 0.32 |
| 8/4/26 | 3.59 | 5 | 1.41 |
| 7/29/26 | 3.17 | 3 | 0.17 |
| 7/24/26 | 3.28 | 4 | 0.72 |
| 7/2/26 | 3.72 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 6/27/26 | 3.82 | 4 | 0.18 |
| 6/21/26 | 3.44 | 6 | 2.56 |