Ryan Weathers
elite tier · 5.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
14
MAE
1.81
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.15
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.10
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.53
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.64
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0623
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0873
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
49
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/11/26 | 6.02 | 4 | 2.02 |
| 8/4/26 | 4.84 | 6 | 1.16 |
| 7/30/26 | 6.32 | 4 | 2.32 |
| 7/25/26 | 5.82 | 7 | 1.18 |
| 7/20/26 | 5.98 | 5 | 0.98 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.57 | 6 | 0.43 |
| 7/5/26 | 4.77 | 6 | 1.23 |
| 6/29/26 | 6.08 | 3 | 3.08 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.42 | 6 | 0.58 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.13 | 8 | 2.87 |
| 6/12/26 | 4.71 | 2 | 2.71 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.94 | 4 | 1.94 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.88 | 10 | 4.12 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |