Ryne Nelson
avg tier · 4.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
5
MAE
1.75
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.52
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.85
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.75
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0303
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0420
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/15/26 | 4.43 | 5 | 0.57 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.30 | 2 | 2.30 |
| 6/4/26 | 4.81 | 3 | 1.81 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.03 | 3 | 2.03 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.03 | 3 | 2.03 |