Sean Burke
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
3.10
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.09
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.40
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.57
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.92
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
36
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.36 | 7 | 2.64 |
| 9/19/26 | 3.65 | 5 | 1.35 |
| 9/8/26 | 4.47 | 2 | 2.47 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.51 | 2 | 2.51 |
| 8/26/26 | 4.88 | 1 | 3.88 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.93 | 2 | 2.93 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.55 | 3 | 1.55 |
| 7/30/26 | 5.77 | 10 | 4.23 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.73 | 10 | 5.27 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.40 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 7/10/26 | 4.66 | 1 | 3.66 |
| 7/4/26 | 4.84 | 11 | 6.16 |
| 6/29/26 | 4.78 | 8 | 3.22 |
| 6/23/26 | 5.22 | 6 | 0.78 |
| 6/18/26 | 4.40 | 8 | 3.60 |
| 6/13/26 | 3.55 | 6 | 2.45 |
| 5/31/26 | 4.40 | 1 | 3.40 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.02 | 0 | 4.02 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.17 | 0 | 4.17 |