Sean Manaea
elite tier · 5.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
2.25
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.43
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.77
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.42
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.68
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0214
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0295
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 4.94 | 9 | 4.06 |
| 9/15/26 | 5.10 | 6 | 0.90 |
| 9/8/26 | 5.19 | 4 | 1.19 |
| 9/1/26 | 5.52 | 2 | 3.52 |
| 8/27/26 | 5.45 | 3 | 2.45 |
| 8/9/26 | 4.40 | 11 | 6.60 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.01 | 7 | 1.99 |
| 7/29/26 | 4.97 | 4 | 0.97 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.24 | 3 | 2.24 |
| 7/18/26 | 5.39 | 7 | 1.61 |
| 7/9/26 | 3.76 | 6 | 2.24 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.11 | 4 | 1.11 |
| 6/29/26 | 4.39 | 4 | 0.39 |