Seth Lugo
avg tier · 4.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
20
MAE
1.60
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.47
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.88
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.98
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.01
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 4.19 | 3 | 1.19 |
| 9/17/26 | 4.17 | 5 | 0.83 |
| 9/11/26 | 3.90 | 7 | 3.10 |
| 9/5/26 | 4.38 | 1 | 3.38 |
| 8/30/26 | 3.39 | 2 | 1.39 |
| 8/25/26 | 4.51 | 5 | 0.49 |
| 8/8/26 | 4.55 | 5 | 0.45 |
| 8/2/26 | 4.08 | 3 | 1.08 |
| 7/28/26 | 3.92 | 2 | 1.92 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.91 | 5 | 1.09 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.44 | 3 | 1.44 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.72 | 6 | 1.28 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.58 | 4 | 0.58 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.54 | 7 | 2.46 |
| 6/25/26 | 4.36 | 3 | 1.36 |
| 6/19/26 | 4.03 | 0 | 4.03 |
| 6/10/26 | 4.24 | 2 | 2.24 |
| 6/4/26 | 4.36 | 4 | 0.36 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.37 | 6 | 1.63 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.68 | 3 | 1.68 |