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Bets
11
6W · 4L
Win Rate
60.0%
55.0% break-even (-122)
ROI
-4.97%
profit / wager
P&L
-0.97u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.46
Ks · n=13 predictions
Bias
-0.02
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
4W-3L
Win Rate
57%▼ 10pp
-115 avg
MAE
2.21▼ 0.60
P&L
-1.92u▼ 2.86u
UNDER8 bets
Record
5W-2L
Win Rate
71%
-128 avg
P&L
+2.86u
OVER3 bets
Record
1W-2L
Win Rate
33%
-109 avg
P&L
-3.83u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.3, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 28% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
7 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1/26 | PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -124 | 6.3% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +1.15u | DraftKings |
| 7/26/26 | ATL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -150 | 7.0% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 2 | WIN | +1.18u | DraftKings |
| 6/23/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -105 | 6.0% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.18u | BetMGM |
| 6/23/26 | @LAA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -238 | 9.8% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 5 | WIN | +1.39u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | SD | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -152 | 5.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 1 | WIN | +0.88u | BetRivers |
| 6/7/26 | @TOR | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -180 | 8.7% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.36u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @LAA | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 13.3% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.80u | Bovada |
| 6/23/26 | @LAA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +200 | 16.1% | 6.6 | 4–9 | 5 | LOSS | -2.42u | FanDuel |
| 6/18/26 | @SEA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -106 | 7.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 9 | LOSS | -1.58u | BetRivers |
| 5/26/26 | TB | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -104 | 6.3% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 9 | LOSS | -1.29u | FanDuel |
| 8/7/26 | @TEX | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -128 | 5.6% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | DraftKings |