Shane Baz
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
2.55
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.12
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.94
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.16
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.92
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/21/26 | 4.86 | 2 | 2.86 |
| 9/15/26 | 4.95 | 2 | 2.95 |
| 9/9/26 | 5.04 | 5 | 0.04 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.05 | 6 | 0.95 |
| 8/29/26 | 5.01 | 1 | 4.01 |
| 8/18/26 | 5.59 | 10 | 4.41 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.33 | 2 | 2.33 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.00 | 9 | 4.00 |
| 8/1/26 | 5.13 | 4 | 1.13 |
| 7/26/26 | 4.71 | 2 | 2.71 |
| 7/20/26 | 4.93 | 6 | 1.07 |
| 7/12/26 | 5.13 | 9 | 3.87 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.26 | 3 | 2.26 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.39 | 6 | 0.61 |
| 6/23/26 | 6.61 | 2 | 4.61 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.29 | 9 | 3.71 |
| 6/12/26 | 4.77 | 1 | 3.77 |
| 6/7/26 | 4.35 | 3 | 1.35 |
| 6/2/26 | 5.25 | 6 | 0.75 |
| 5/26/26 | 4.24 | 9 | 4.76 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.62 | 6 | 1.38 |