Shane Drohan
good tier · 5.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
12
MAE
1.72
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.40
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.14
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
0.85
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.14
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0010
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0008
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
4
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/4/26 | 5.12 | 5 | 0.12 |
| 8/29/26 | 5.16 | 6 | 0.84 |
| 8/7/26 | 5.17 | 4 | 1.17 |
| 7/31/26 | 5.14 | 7 | 1.86 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.76 | 6 | 0.24 |
| 7/18/26 | 4.67 | 9 | 4.33 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.30 | 6 | 0.70 |
| 7/6/26 | 4.91 | 2 | 2.91 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.86 | 7 | 2.14 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.60 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 6/18/26 | 6.16 | 3 | 3.16 |
| 6/13/26 | 4.39 | 7 | 2.61 |