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Bets
18
3W · 14L
Win Rate
17.6%
40.6% break-even (+147)
ROI
-62.12%
profit / wager
P&L
-15.91u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.06
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
-0.58
under-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0010 · 4 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-6L
Win Rate
25%▲ 14pp
+174 avg
MAE
2.01
P&L
-7.24u▲ 1.43u
UNDER7 bets
Record
1W-5L
Win Rate
17%
-109 avg
P&L
-7.93u
OVER11 bets
Record
2W-9L
Win Rate
18%
+192 avg
P&L
-7.98u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.2, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 27% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
8 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/18/26 | MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +190 | 5.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +1.63u | BetRivers |
| 7/18/26 | MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +420 | 5.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 9 | WIN | +2.94u | FanDuel |
| 6/18/26 | CLE | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -135 | 8.7% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.52u | BetMGM |
| 7/31/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +118 | 13.4% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.48u | BetRivers |
| 7/24/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +100 | 8.3% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.66u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -160 | 11.4% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.95u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +140 | 12.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.22u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 11.6% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -1.54u | BetMGM |
| 7/6/26 | @STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +630 | 8.3% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -0.96u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | CIN | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +145 | 5.5% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -0.92u | Bovada |
| 7/1/26 | CIN | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -140 | 6.0% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -1.43u | BetMGM |
| 6/24/26 | @CIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +130 | 5.8% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.03u | Bovada |
| 6/24/26 | @CIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +275 | 6.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -0.83u | Bovada |
| 6/18/26 | CLE | OVER | 5.5 | MAIN | -110 | 6.5% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -1.36u | Fanatics |
| 6/18/26 | CLE | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +180 | 6.4% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -0.99u | Fanatics |
| 6/18/26 | CLE | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +350 | 5.2% | 6.2 | 4–9 | 3 | LOSS | -0.67u | FanDuel |
| 6/13/26 | PHI | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -156 | 11.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.95u | DraftKings |
| 7/29/26 | @SF | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -136 | 5.2% | 5.0 | 3–7 | — | — | — | BetRivers |