Shota Imanaga
good tier · 5.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.51
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.54
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.87
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.72
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.65
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0186
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0257
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.20 | 7 | 1.80 |
| 9/16/26 | 5.17 | 8 | 2.83 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.80 | 4 | 1.80 |
| 9/4/26 | 5.13 | 4 | 1.13 |
| 8/30/26 | 5.04 | 4 | 1.04 |
| 8/11/26 | 4.98 | 5 | 0.02 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.64 | 6 | 1.36 |
| 7/31/26 | 5.92 | 6 | 0.08 |
| 7/25/26 | 5.47 | 4 | 1.47 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.34 | 4 | 0.34 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.82 | 5 | 0.82 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.46 | 8 | 2.54 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.36 | 4 | 1.36 |
| 6/24/26 | 6.36 | 4 | 2.36 |
| 6/15/26 | 6.81 | 3 | 3.81 |
| 6/10/26 | 7.43 | 7 | 0.43 |
| 6/4/26 | 6.01 | 5 | 1.01 |
| 5/29/26 | 5.84 | 2 | 3.84 |
| 5/24/26 | 5.42 | 6 | 0.58 |