Slade Cecconi
avg tier · 4.2K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
11
MAE
1.45
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.56
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.81
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.62
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.44
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/28/26 | 5.21 | 2 | 3.21 |
| 7/22/26 | 3.52 | 5 | 1.48 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.69 | 4 | 0.69 |
| 7/2/26 | 5.09 | 3 | 2.09 |
| 6/27/26 | 4.63 | 4 | 0.63 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.11 | 1 | 3.11 |
| 6/16/26 | 4.00 | 4 | 0.00 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.46 | 7 | 2.54 |
| 6/4/26 | 3.79 | 4 | 0.21 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.32 | 3 | 1.32 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.32 | 5 | 0.68 |