Sonny Gray
elite tier · 5.6K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
1.94
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.02
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.37
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.33
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.78
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/23/26 | 5.44 | 3 | 2.44 |
| 9/17/26 | 5.49 | 6 | 0.51 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.49 | 5 | 0.49 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.28 | 7 | 1.72 |
| 8/26/26 | 5.51 | 4 | 1.51 |
| 8/10/26 | 4.95 | 4 | 0.95 |
| 8/5/26 | 5.55 | 8 | 2.45 |
| 7/30/26 | 5.41 | 2 | 3.41 |
| 7/25/26 | 4.65 | 3 | 1.65 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.58 | 5 | 0.42 |
| 7/10/26 | 5.45 | 3 | 2.45 |
| 7/4/26 | 5.44 | 7 | 1.56 |
| 6/28/26 | 5.50 | 9 | 3.50 |
| 6/23/26 | 4.90 | 11 | 6.10 |
| 6/18/26 | 4.42 | 4 | 0.42 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.01 | 7 | 1.99 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.06 | 3 | 2.06 |
| 5/30/26 | 4.68 | 2 | 2.68 |
| 5/24/26 | 4.54 | 4 | 0.54 |