Spencer Arrighetti
good tier · 5.1K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
13
MAE
1.83
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.95
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.35
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.26
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.43
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0343
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0488
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
46
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/6/26 | 4.25 | 3 | 1.25 |
| 8/27/26 | 4.49 | 4 | 0.49 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.64 | 0 | 5.64 |
| 7/18/26 | 5.74 | 6 | 0.26 |
| 7/8/26 | 5.67 | 2 | 3.67 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.73 | 4 | 1.73 |
| 6/26/26 | 6.18 | 7 | 0.82 |
| 6/20/26 | 6.69 | 8 | 1.31 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.49 | 7 | 1.51 |
| 6/8/26 | 5.22 | 7 | 1.78 |
| 6/3/26 | 5.73 | 3 | 2.73 |
| 5/28/26 | 5.47 | 3 | 2.47 |
| 5/22/26 | 5.10 | 5 | 0.10 |