Bets
3
2W · 1L
Win Rate
66.7%
2/3
ROI
+48.01%
profit / wager
P&L
+4.30u
1× Kelly · settled
MAE
0.74
Ks · n=3
Bias
-0.61
under-predicting
Volatility
High spread
α=0.0409 · 41 starts
Recent form · Last 2 starts
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
MAE
1.06
P&L
+4.30u
UNDER3 bets
Record
2W-1L
Win Rate
67%
P&L
+4.30u
OVER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.1, α=0.041) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 26% · green = OVER 5.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
2 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher — directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/22/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | +130 | 17.0% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.92u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @CHC | UNDER | 6.5 | MAIN | -148 | 15.2% | 5.1 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.55u | DraftKings |
| 6/8/26 | @LAA | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -106 | 10.5% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 7 | LOSS | -2.17u | FanDuel |