Stephen Kolek
scrub tier · 3.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
7
MAE
2.45
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.06
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.85
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.85
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0005
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
27
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/2/26 | 4.04 | 0 | 4.04 |
| 6/21/26 | 4.06 | 0 | 4.06 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.91 | 4 | 0.91 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.17 | 3 | 1.17 |
| 6/3/26 | 3.92 | 8 | 4.08 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.20 | 5 | 0.80 |
| 5/23/26 | 4.10 | 2 | 2.10 |