Steven Matz
scrub tier · 4.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
3
MAE
1.68
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.83
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.71
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.68
n=3
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0148
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0224
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
36
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/2/26 | 3.77 | 2 | 1.77 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.00 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 5/20/26 | 3.72 | 5 | 1.28 |