Taj Bradley
elite tier · 5.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
21
MAE
1.96
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.75
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.51
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.49
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.42
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0206
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0284
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/22/26 | 5.70 | 6 | 0.30 |
| 9/17/26 | 5.61 | 9 | 3.39 |
| 9/11/26 | 5.75 | 6 | 0.25 |
| 9/5/26 | 5.75 | 6 | 0.25 |
| 8/31/26 | 5.73 | 9 | 3.27 |
| 8/25/26 | 5.62 | 3 | 2.62 |
| 8/8/26 | 5.83 | 7 | 1.17 |
| 8/2/26 | 5.68 | 2 | 3.68 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.46 | 10 | 4.54 |
| 7/23/26 | 5.07 | 5 | 0.07 |
| 7/18/26 | 5.60 | 6 | 0.40 |
| 7/12/26 | 6.43 | 6 | 0.43 |
| 7/7/26 | 5.73 | 10 | 4.27 |
| 7/1/26 | 5.71 | 11 | 5.29 |
| 6/26/26 | 5.56 | 7 | 1.44 |
| 6/20/26 | 5.71 | 4 | 1.71 |
| 6/14/26 | 5.25 | 7 | 1.75 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.68 | 3 | 2.68 |
| 6/3/26 | 6.45 | 5 | 1.45 |
| 5/29/26 | 5.70 | 6 | 0.30 |
| 5/23/26 | 5.14 | 7 | 1.86 |