Look up a pitcher
Bets
35
16W · 19L
Win Rate
45.7%
40.3% break-even (+148)
ROI
-7.10%
profit / wager
P&L
-6.02u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
2.19
Ks · n=14 predictions
Bias
+0.82
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0003 · 50 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
8W-12L
Win Rate
40%▼ 13pp
+141 avg
MAE
1.70▼ 1.62
P&L
-6.10u▼ 6.18u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER35 bets
Record
16W-19L
Win Rate
46%
+148 avg
P&L
-6.02u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.6, α=0.000) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 21% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/5/26 | NYM | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 9.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +1.33u | Fanatics |
| 8/5/26 | NYM | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -114 | 11.9% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +2.23u | BetOnline.ag |
| 8/5/26 | NYM | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +185 | 12.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +3.55u | Fanatics |
| 8/5/26 | NYM | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +396 | 11.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 10 | WIN | +5.56u | DraftKings |
| 7/25/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -165 | 18.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.90u | BetMGM |
| 7/25/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +135 | 21.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +5.11u | Fanatics |
| 7/20/26 | MIN | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -260 | 6.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +0.94u | Fanatics |
| 7/20/26 | MIN | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -113 | 9.5% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.78u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @HOU | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -275 | 6.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +0.87u | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @HOU | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -110 | 10.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.06u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/19/26 | @HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +175 | 8.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.41u | Fanatics |
| 6/19/26 | @HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +370 | 7.7% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +3.63u | FanDuel |
| 6/12/26 | DET | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -153 | 7.3% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +1.20u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | DET | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +142 | 9.2% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +2.23u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | DET | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +296 | 8.9% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +3.51u | DraftKings |
| 6/12/26 | DET | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +610 | 6.8% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 8 | WIN | +4.83u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -215 | 12.4% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.92u | Fanatics |
| 7/31/26 | ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +110 | 17.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.29u | Fanatics |
| 7/31/26 | ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +240 | 17.8% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.52u | DraftKings |
| 7/31/26 | ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +522 | 15.0% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.78u | DraftKings |
| 7/25/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +300 | 21.6% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.88u | FanDuel |
| 7/25/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +660 | 17.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.00u | DraftKings |
| 7/20/26 | MIN | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 12.9% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.89u | Bovada |
| 7/20/26 | MIN | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +450 | 10.6% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.29u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | @MIA | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -222 | 11.1% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.59u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/11/26 | @MIA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -102 | 13.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.73u | DraftKings |
| 7/11/26 | @MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +215 | 14.5% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.13u | FanDuel |
| 7/11/26 | @MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +456 | 12.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.49u | DraftKings |
| 7/5/26 | CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -140 | 6.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.51u | BetMGM |
| 7/5/26 | CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +165 | 9.2% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.48u | Bovada |
| 7/5/26 | CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +350 | 8.6% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.11u | Bovada |
| 6/24/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -150 | 25.4% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 3 | LOSS | -6.34u | Fanatics |
| 6/24/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +133 | 30.2% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 3 | LOSS | -5.29u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | @CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +283 | 32.0% | 7.2 | 4–10 | 3 | LOSS | -4.33u | DraftKings |
| 6/19/26 | @HOU | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +760 | 5.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -0.59u | DraftKings |