Tarik Skubal
elite tier · 7.3K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
2.14
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.90
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.56
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.27
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
2.13
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 6.50 | 10 | 3.50 |
| 9/19/26 | 6.50 | 3 | 3.50 |
| 9/14/26 | 6.52 | 9 | 2.48 |
| 9/8/26 | 6.44 | 5 | 1.44 |
| 9/3/26 | 6.44 | 6 | 0.44 |
| 8/28/26 | 6.51 | 7 | 0.49 |
| 8/10/26 | 6.42 | 6 | 0.42 |
| 7/29/26 | 6.97 | 6 | 0.97 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.95 | 12 | 6.05 |
| 7/18/26 | 6.30 | 9 | 2.70 |
| 7/12/26 | 6.61 | 5 | 1.61 |
| 7/7/26 | 6.26 | 9 | 2.74 |
| 6/30/26 | 6.96 | 9 | 2.04 |
| 6/24/26 | 6.22 | 9 | 2.78 |
| 6/19/26 | 6.48 | 8 | 1.52 |
| 6/13/26 | 5.58 | 4 | 1.58 |