Tatsuya Imai
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
10
MAE
3.15
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.02
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.48
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.10
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.20
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0933
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.2983
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
9
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | 4.95 | 1 | 3.95 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.57 | 8 | 3.43 |
| 7/7/26 | 4.02 | 3 | 1.02 |
| 7/1/26 | 4.55 | 2 | 2.55 |
| 6/25/26 | 5.45 | 10 | 4.55 |
| 6/19/26 | 5.33 | 11 | 5.67 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.13 | 1 | 4.13 |
| 6/6/26 | 5.77 | 8 | 2.23 |
| 5/31/26 | 5.66 | 5 | 0.66 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.33 | 2 | 3.33 |