Tomoyuki Sugano
scrub tier · 3.4K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
18
MAE
1.01
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.07
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.15
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.15
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
0.84
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
44
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 3.73 | 5 | 1.27 |
| 9/20/26 | 3.85 | 5 | 1.15 |
| 9/14/26 | 3.84 | 2 | 1.84 |
| 9/9/26 | 3.77 | 5 | 1.23 |
| 9/2/26 | 3.72 | 4 | 0.28 |
| 8/28/26 | 3.74 | 4 | 0.26 |
| 8/11/26 | 3.92 | 5 | 1.08 |
| 8/5/26 | 3.05 | 3 | 0.05 |
| 7/31/26 | 3.85 | 2 | 1.85 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.02 | 5 | 0.98 |
| 7/18/26 | 3.45 | 3 | 0.45 |
| 6/26/26 | 3.88 | 2 | 1.88 |
| 6/20/26 | 4.09 | 5 | 0.91 |
| 6/14/26 | 3.20 | 2 | 1.20 |
| 6/9/26 | 3.13 | 3 | 0.13 |
| 6/2/26 | 3.70 | 5 | 1.30 |
| 5/27/26 | 4.20 | 3 | 1.20 |
| 5/22/26 | 4.07 | 3 | 1.07 |