Look up a pitcher
Bets
41
8W · 33L
Win Rate
19.5%
32.6% break-even (+207)
ROI
-39.40%
profit / wager
P&L
-48.13u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.84
Ks · n=11 predictions
Bias
+1.63
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0007 · 10 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
5W-17L
Win Rate
23%▲ 7pp
+199 avg
MAE
1.79▼ 0.05
P&L
-18.55u▲ 11.03u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER41 bets
Record
8W-33L
Win Rate
20%
+207 avg
P&L
-48.13u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=5.4, α=0.001) · 80% range 3-8 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 29% · green = OVER 4
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
10 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/20/26 | @KC | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -196 | 19.6% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 3 | WIN | +2.97u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/12/26 | COL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 5.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +0.89u | Fanatics |
| 7/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -230 | 19.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.83u | Fanatics |
| 7/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +106 | 27.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +5.69u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +242 | 29.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +10.08u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | CHC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -192 | 17.7% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 4 | WIN | +2.69u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +250 | 24.4% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +8.55u | DraftKings |
| 6/2/26 | @MIL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -220 | 17.6% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | WIN | +2.56u | BetMGM |
| 7/20/26 | @KC | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +123 | 25.3% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -4.59u | BetRivers |
| 7/20/26 | @KC | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +285 | 25.3% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.42u | BetRivers |
| 7/20/26 | @KC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +680 | 20.5% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.35u | FanDuel |
| 7/20/26 | @KC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1480 | 13.1% | 4.7 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.40u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | COL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +120 | 7.3% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.33u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | COL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +266 | 7.4% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.02u | DraftKings |
| 7/12/26 | COL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +578 | 5.8% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.67u | DraftKings |
| 7/7/26 | TOR | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 19.7% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -4.42u | Fanatics |
| 7/7/26 | TOR | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +200 | 24.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -3.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/7/26 | TOR | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +460 | 21.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -2.63u | FanDuel |
| 7/7/26 | TOR | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +870 | 14.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0 | LOSS | -1.56u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +563 | 25.6% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -3.01u | DraftKings |
| 7/1/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1260 | 18.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.94u | DraftKings |
| 6/26/26 | ATL | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -162 | 12.7% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.33u | FanDuel |
| 6/26/26 | ATL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +148 | 16.2% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.71u | FanDuel |
| 6/26/26 | ATL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +310 | 13.9% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.84u | FanDuel |
| 6/26/26 | ATL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +640 | 9.8% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.14u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @MIA | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -190 | 13.8% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -4.01u | Fanatics |
| 6/20/26 | @MIA | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +115 | 16.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -3.05u | Fanatics |
| 6/20/26 | @MIA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 17.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -2.37u | Bovada |
| 6/20/26 | @MIA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +575 | 14.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -1.66u | Bovada |
| 6/20/26 | @MIA | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1020 | 8.0% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 1 | LOSS | -0.88u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | CHC | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 25.9% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -3.59u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +556 | 22.8% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -2.69u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | CHC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1180 | 17.1% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 4 | LOSS | -1.85u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @CHC | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +557 | 22.2% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -2.61u | DraftKings |
| 6/7/26 | @CHC | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1220 | 16.7% | 5.9 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.81u | DraftKings |
| 6/2/26 | @MIL | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 24.1% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -4.83u | BetMGM |
| 6/2/26 | @MIL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +200 | 25.8% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -3.86u | BetMGM |
| 6/2/26 | @MIL | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +850 | 19.2% | 6.3 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -2.14u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @CWS | OVER | 4.5 | N/A | -135 | 17.2% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -4.05u | BetMGM |
| 5/22/26 | @CWS | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +1280 | 8.7% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -0.94u | DraftKings |
| 5/22/26 | @CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +152 | 18.4% | 6.1 | 4–9 | 4 | LOSS | -3.04u | FanDuel |