Trevor Rogers
avg tier · 4.5K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
19
MAE
2.57
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.19
predicted − actual
RMSE
3.06
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
2.98
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
3.43
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0003
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
50
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/25/26 | 4.89 | 4 | 0.89 |
| 9/19/26 | 5.05 | 10 | 4.95 |
| 9/13/26 | 4.28 | 5 | 0.72 |
| 9/7/26 | 3.68 | 6 | 2.32 |
| 9/2/26 | 5.00 | 11 | 6.00 |
| 8/27/26 | 4.17 | 7 | 2.83 |
| 8/10/26 | 4.08 | 1 | 3.08 |
| 8/5/26 | 4.99 | 0 | 4.99 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.19 | 0 | 5.19 |
| 7/24/26 | 4.96 | 6 | 1.04 |
| 7/18/26 | 3.96 | 1 | 2.96 |
| 7/9/26 | 4.69 | 4 | 0.69 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.51 | 4 | 1.51 |
| 6/26/26 | 4.57 | 7 | 2.43 |
| 6/20/26 | 3.68 | 6 | 2.32 |
| 6/14/26 | 4.21 | 4 | 0.21 |
| 6/9/26 | 5.04 | 3 | 2.04 |
| 6/4/26 | 4.18 | 3 | 1.18 |
| 5/29/26 | 4.49 | 1 | 3.49 |