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Bets
15
13W · 2L
Win Rate
86.7%
35.5% break-even (+182)
ROI
+203.65%
profit / wager
P&L
+79.79u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.69
Ks · n=4 predictions
Bias
+0.28
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0010 · 4 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
13W-2L
Win Rate
87%
+182 avg
MAE
1.69
P&L
+79.79u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER15 bets
Record
13W-2L
Win Rate
87%
+182 avg
P&L
+79.79u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.7, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 19% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/26 | CWS | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -164 | 15.4% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +2.48u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/30/26 | CWS | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +126 | 16.3% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +3.69u | FanDuel |
| 6/24/26 | @LAA | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -244 | 5.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +0.74u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/19/26 | @LAD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -210 | 17.2% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +2.54u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @LAD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +118 | 22.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +4.92u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @LAD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +270 | 21.9% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +8.10u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @LAD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +650 | 17.6% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +13.22u | FanDuel |
| 6/19/26 | @LAD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1320 | 10.4% | 4.6 | 2–7 | 8 | WIN | +14.78u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | SD | OVER | 2.5 | ALT | -190 | 14.0% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +2.13u | Fanatics |
| 6/13/26 | SD | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +131 | 17.3% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +4.00u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | SD | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +308 | 16.1% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +6.56u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | SD | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +720 | 11.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +9.61u | DraftKings |
| 6/13/26 | SD | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +1540 | 6.4% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 7 | WIN | +10.48u | DraftKings |
| 6/30/26 | CWS | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +260 | 14.8% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.06u | Bovada |
| 6/30/26 | CWS | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +565 | 12.0% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.41u | Bovada |