Trey Yesavage
good tier · 4.9K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
2.18
Ks off, on average
Bias
+0.42
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.70
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
3.07
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.76
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
11
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/21/26 | 3.94 | 3 | 0.94 |
| 8/4/26 | 5.33 | 0 | 5.33 |
| 7/29/26 | 5.05 | 4 | 1.05 |
| 7/24/26 | 5.01 | 9 | 3.99 |
| 7/19/26 | 4.94 | 9 | 4.06 |
| 7/11/26 | 5.50 | 1 | 4.50 |
| 7/5/26 | 5.96 | 7 | 1.04 |
| 6/29/26 | 5.43 | 3 | 2.43 |
| 6/24/26 | 5.02 | 5 | 0.02 |
| 6/18/26 | 5.17 | 6 | 0.83 |
| 6/12/26 | 5.95 | 3 | 2.95 |
| 6/5/26 | 5.63 | 5 | 0.63 |
| 5/30/26 | 5.60 | 4 | 1.60 |
| 5/25/26 | 5.35 | 6 | 0.65 |
| 5/20/26 | 5.38 | 8 | 2.62 |