Troy Melton
good tier · 4.8K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.45
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.48
predicted − actual
RMSE
2.01
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.22
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.37
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0008
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
7
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/20/26 | 5.74 | 4 | 1.74 |
| 9/14/26 | 4.96 | 3 | 1.96 |
| 9/7/26 | 4.18 | 3 | 1.18 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.98 | 4 | 0.98 |
| 8/26/26 | 3.77 | 4 | 0.23 |
| 8/9/26 | 4.54 | 5 | 0.46 |
| 8/4/26 | 4.93 | 4 | 0.93 |
| 7/28/26 | 5.25 | 5 | 0.25 |
| 7/23/26 | 3.99 | 5 | 1.01 |
| 7/17/26 | 4.82 | 9 | 4.18 |
| 7/8/26 | 3.76 | 9 | 5.24 |
| 7/1/26 | 5.31 | 7 | 1.69 |
| 6/25/26 | 4.93 | 6 | 1.07 |
| 6/20/26 | 5.19 | 5 | 0.19 |
| 6/9/26 | 4.39 | 5 | 0.61 |