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Bets
5
5W · 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
52.4% break-even (-110)
ROI
+94.09%
profit / wager
P&L
+12.68u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.26
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
-0.44
neutral
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0004 · 35 starts
Recent form · Last 4 starts
Record
5W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-110 avg
MAE
1.47
P&L
+12.68u
UNDER5 bets
Record
5W-0L
Win Rate
100%
-110 avg
P&L
+12.68u
OVER0 bets
Record
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Win Rate
—
P&L
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Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.0, α=0.000) · 80% range 2-6 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 22% · green = OVER 4.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
4 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | MIL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +110 | 7.5% | 4.4 | 2–7 | 3 | WIN | +1.57u | BetMGM |
| 7/11/26 | COL | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | +130 | 21.6% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +4.96u | Bovada |
| 7/11/26 | COL | UNDER | 5.5 | MAIN | -143 | 16.7% | 4.2 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.85u | DraftKings |
| 6/24/26 | ATH | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -122 | 12.1% | 3.8 | 2–6 | 4 | WIN | +2.20u | DraftKings |
| 5/26/26 | ARI | UNDER | 4.5 | MAIN | -134 | 6.3% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 3 | WIN | +1.10u | FanDuel |