Tyler Mahle
good tier · 4.7K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
16
MAE
1.47
Ks off, on average
Bias
-0.46
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.93
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.77
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.91
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0004
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
35
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 4.71 | 4 | 0.71 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.73 | 6 | 1.27 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.72 | 3 | 1.72 |
| 9/6/26 | 3.93 | 3 | 0.93 |
| 8/30/26 | 4.80 | 9 | 4.20 |
| 8/18/26 | 4.05 | 3 | 1.05 |
| 8/12/26 | 4.67 | 7 | 2.33 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.34 | 9 | 4.66 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.40 | 3 | 1.40 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.10 | 4 | 0.10 |
| 7/11/26 | 3.90 | 4 | 0.10 |
| 7/5/26 | 3.91 | 5 | 1.09 |
| 6/29/26 | 4.31 | 3 | 1.31 |
| 6/24/26 | 3.55 | 4 | 0.45 |
| 5/26/26 | 3.91 | 3 | 0.91 |
| 5/20/26 | 4.64 | 6 | 1.36 |