Tyler Phillips
scrub tier · 3.0K talent estimateLifetime
Starts
15
MAE
1.62
Ks off, on average
Bias
+1.55
predicted − actual
RMSE
1.88
Recent form
Last 5 starts — MAE
1.45
n=5
Prior 5 starts — MAE
1.60
n=5
Volatility
Dispersion (α, EB-shrunk)
0.0007
what the model uses at inference
Dispersion (α, raw)
0.0001
unshrunk personal estimate
Starts used
12
Predicted vs. actual, every start
| Date | Predicted | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/24/26 | 4.05 | 2 | 2.05 |
| 9/18/26 | 4.48 | 3 | 1.48 |
| 9/12/26 | 4.65 | 3 | 1.65 |
| 9/6/26 | 4.43 | 3 | 1.43 |
| 9/1/26 | 4.66 | 4 | 0.66 |
| 8/7/26 | 4.67 | 4 | 0.67 |
| 8/1/26 | 4.20 | 3 | 1.20 |
| 7/27/26 | 4.50 | 5 | 0.50 |
| 7/21/26 | 4.12 | 2 | 2.12 |
| 7/12/26 | 4.53 | 1 | 3.53 |
| 7/8/26 | 4.95 | 3 | 1.95 |
| 7/3/26 | 5.03 | 2 | 3.03 |
| 6/28/26 | 3.86 | 1 | 2.86 |
| 6/22/26 | 4.11 | 4 | 0.11 |
| 6/16/26 | 5.07 | 4 | 1.07 |