Look up a pitcher
Bets
18
3W · 14L
Win Rate
17.6%
41.1% break-even (+143)
ROI
-69.45%
profit / wager
P&L
-29.87u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.82
Ks · n=9 predictions
Bias
+1.71
over-predicting
Volatility
Low spread
α=0.0007 · 12 starts
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
2W-4L
Win Rate
33%▲ 24pp
+107 avg
MAE
1.86
P&L
-11.42u▲ 7.02u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER18 bets
Record
3W-14L
Win Rate
18%
+143 avg
P&L
-29.87u
Strikeout Distribution
NB(μ=4.7, α=0.001) · 80% range 2-7 K (calibrated) · Ceiling 20% · green = OVER 3.5
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
9 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | PHI | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -125 | 6.3% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +1.13u | BetMGM |
| 7/27/26 | PHI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +182 | 6.4% | 4.3 | 2–6 | 5 | WIN | +1.81u | FanDuel |
| 6/16/26 | @PHI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -135 | 19.0% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 4 | WIN | +3.31u | BetMGM |
| 8/1/26 | @NYM | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +115 | 19.3% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 3 | LOSS | -3.61u | BetMGM |
| 7/21/26 | @HOU | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | +115 | 12.9% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -2.41u | BetMGM |
| 7/21/26 | @HOU | OVER | 2.5 | MAIN | -185 | 13.8% | 4.1 | 2–6 | 2 | LOSS | -3.94u | BetMGM |
| 7/12/26 | CLE | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +145 | 26.1% | 4.5 | 2–7 | 1 | LOSS | -4.41u | BetMGM |
| 7/8/26 | SEA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +124 | 9.8% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.77u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/3/26 | @ATH | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 13.1% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -3.42u | BetMGM |
| 7/3/26 | @ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +130 | 13.3% | 5.0 | 3–7 | 2 | LOSS | -2.36u | Fanatics |
| 6/28/26 | @STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +210 | 21.9% | 4.9 | 3–7 | 1 | LOSS | -3.23u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/28/26 | @STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | +110 | 6.4% | 3.9 | 2–6 | 1 | LOSS | -1.23u | BetMGM |
| 6/22/26 | TEX | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +122 | 7.4% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.35u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/16/26 | @PHI | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +170 | 22.2% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -3.52u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | @PHI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +350 | 19.0% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -2.44u | BetMGM |
| 6/16/26 | @PHI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +725 | 13.7% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -1.55u | Bovada |
| 6/16/26 | @PHI | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1500 | 8.3% | 5.2 | 3–7 | 4 | LOSS | -0.89u | Fanatics |
| 8/7/26 | LAA | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -160 | 7.7% | 4.7 | 2–7 | — | — | — | BetMGM |