Look up a pitcher
Bets
42
20W · 22L
Win Rate
47.6%
35.8% break-even (+180)
ROI
+45.83%
profit / wager
P&L
+46.73u
1× Kelly-sized (calibration-adjusted) · settled
MAE
1.05
Ks · n=12 predictions
Bias
-0.26
neutral
Volatility
—
not in NB α file yet
Recent form · Last 5 starts
Record
8W-11L
Win Rate
42%▼ 6pp
+141 avg
MAE
0.94▼ 0.42
P&L
-2.89u▼ 47.02u
UNDER0 bets
Record
—
Win Rate
—
P&L
—
OVER42 bets
Record
20W-22L
Win Rate
48%
+180 avg
P&L
+46.73u
Predicted vs Actual Over Time
11 starts · one bar pair per pitcher-start
Edge Sweet-Spot
ROI by predicted edge bucket · small samples per pitcher; directional only
| Date | Opp | Side | Line | Type | Odds | Edge | Pred Ks | 80% CI | Actual Ks | Result | Units | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/26 | HOU | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -235 | 5.8% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +0.82u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | HOU | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -104 | 7.4% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.46u | BetRivers |
| 7/21/26 | STL | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -160 | 9.6% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +1.56u | BetMGM |
| 7/21/26 | STL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +130 | 8.9% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | WIN | +2.05u | Fanatics |
| 7/2/26 | @SEA | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -250 | 5.1% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +0.71u | BetMGM |
| 7/2/26 | @SEA | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -115 | 5.7% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.07u | BetMGM |
| 7/2/26 | @SEA | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +180 | 5.5% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.53u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -135 | 11.4% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +1.98u | BetMGM |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -140 | 25.9% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +4.44u | FanDuel |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +161 | 31.4% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +8.20u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +367 | 31.1% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +14.53u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | HOU | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -195 | 16.2% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.45u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | HOU | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +118 | 21.4% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +4.66u | FanDuel |
| 6/9/26 | HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +275 | 23.3% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +8.74u | Bovada |
| 6/9/26 | HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +650 | 20.3% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +15.21u | Bovada |
| 6/3/26 | COL | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | -110 | 13.3% | 5.5 | 3–8 | 7 | WIN | +2.53u | BetMGM |
| 5/29/26 | @TB | OVER | 3.5 | MAIN | -130 | 23.3% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +4.12u | Fanatics |
| 5/29/26 | @TB | OVER | 4.5 | ALT | +174 | 27.2% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | WIN | +7.46u | FanDuel |
| 5/23/26 | @TEX | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | -104 | 9.5% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +1.87u | BetRivers |
| 5/23/26 | @TEX | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +210 | 11.7% | 5.3 | 3–8 | 6 | WIN | +3.62u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | HOU | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +210 | 8.1% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.20u | BetRivers |
| 7/27/26 | HOU | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +450 | 6.9% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.84u | Bovada |
| 7/21/26 | STL | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +280 | 8.1% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -1.10u | Fanatics |
| 7/21/26 | STL | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +575 | 5.5% | 4.8 | 3–7 | 5 | LOSS | -0.64u | Fanatics |
| 7/8/26 | @TEX | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -220 | 7.3% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -2.32u | Fanatics |
| 7/8/26 | @TEX | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +100 | 8.5% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.71u | BetOnline.ag |
| 7/8/26 | @TEX | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +220 | 9.2% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -1.34u | FanDuel |
| 7/8/26 | @TEX | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +480 | 8.0% | 5.1 | 3–7 | 3 | LOSS | -0.96u | FanDuel |
| 7/2/26 | @SEA | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +400 | 5.8% | 5.2 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -0.72u | Bovada |
| 6/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +150 | 11.5% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.91u | BetMGM |
| 6/26/26 | ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +303 | 10.0% | 5.7 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -1.33u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +810 | 24.8% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -2.79u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1680 | 16.6% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.75u | DraftKings |
| 6/20/26 | @ATH | OVER | 8.5 | ALT | +3900 | 10.0% | 5.8 | 3–8 | 6 | LOSS | -1.03u | BetOnline.ag |
| 6/15/26 | @ARI | OVER | 3.5 | ALT | -175 | 18.6% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -5.11u | BetMGM |
| 6/15/26 | @ARI | OVER | 4.5 | MAIN | +125 | 22.7% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -4.08u | BetMGM |
| 6/15/26 | @ARI | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +274 | 23.1% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -3.15u | DraftKings |
| 6/15/26 | @ARI | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +585 | 18.9% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -2.21u | DraftKings |
| 6/15/26 | @ARI | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1200 | 12.7% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 3 | LOSS | -1.37u | DraftKings |
| 6/9/26 | HOU | OVER | 7.5 | ALT | +1160 | 12.6% | 5.6 | 3–8 | 7 | LOSS | -1.36u | DraftKings |
| 5/29/26 | @TB | OVER | 5.5 | ALT | +390 | 25.6% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -3.22u | FanDuel |
| 5/29/26 | @TB | OVER | 6.5 | ALT | +820 | 19.1% | 5.4 | 3–8 | 5 | LOSS | -2.14u | DraftKings |